EnsCorr {SpecsVerification}

Correlation skill analysis for ensemble forecasts

Description

Calculate correlation between forecasts and observations for an ensemble forecast, including an adjustment for finite ensemble sizes

Usage

EnsCorr(ens, obs, R.new = NA)

Arguments

ens

a N*R matrix representing N time instances of real-valued R-member ensemble forecasts

obs

a numeric vector of length N with real-valued observations

R.new

positive number, can be Inf, ensemble size for which correlation skill should be estimated, default is NA for using the actual size R of the ensemble

Value

A vector with 4 entries:

• cmy: Correlation skill of the ensemble mean forecast

• cmy_adj: Correlation skill of the ensemble mean forecast adjusted to ensemble size R.new

• cxx: Average correlation between ensemble members

• cxy: Average correlation between individual ensemble members and observation

References

Von Storch, Zwiers (2001): Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press.

Murphy (1990), Assessment of the practical utility of extended range ensemble forecasts, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 116, 89-125.

See Also

Corr, CorrDiff

Examples

data(eurotempforecast)
EnsCorr(ens, obs, R.new=Inf)