WorldEvents {scoring}

Forecasts of world events

Description

Probabilistic forecasts of three world events, provided by seven MTurkers.

Usage

data("WorldEvents")

Format

A data frame with forecasts of three world events provided by seven Mechanical Turk users.

forecaster

Forecaster ID

item

Item ID (see details)

answer

Item resolution (0/1)

forecast

Forecast associated with outcome 1

Details

The three forecasted items were:

1. The UK will leave the European Union before the end of 2012.

2. Before Jan 1, 2013, Apple will announce it has sold more than 10 million iPad minis.

3. Japan's nuclear plant in Tsuruga will remain idle between June 1 and December 31, 2012.

For each item, outcome=1 implies that the item text did occur and outcome=0 implies that the item text did not occur. Forecasts were provided on Dec 20, 2012.

Source

Unpublished data provided by Ed Merkle.

Examples

data("WorldEvents")

## Average forecast for each item
with(WorldEvents, tapply(forecast, item, mean))

## Brier scores
bs <- calcscore(answer ~ forecast, data = WorldEvents, bounds=c(0,1))