predict_pemultinom {pemultinom}

Make predictions on new predictors based on fitted l1-penalized multinomial regression model.

Description

Make predictions on new predictors based on fitted l1-penalized multinomial regression model, by using the fitted beta.

Usage

predict_pemultinom(beta, ref, xnew, type = c("class", "prob"))

Arguments

beta

the beta estimate from l1-penalized multinomial regression. Should be in the same format as beta.min or beta.1se in output of function cv.pemultinom. The user is recommended to directly pass beta.min or beta.1se from the output of function cv.pemultinom to parameter beta.

ref

the reference level, which should be the same reference level as used in obtaining beta. An input is required.

xnew

new observations to predict labels for. Should be a matrix or a data frame, where each row and column represents an observation and predictor, respectively.

type

the type of prediction output. Can be 'class' or 'prob'. Default = 'class'.

• class: the predicted class/label.

• prob: the predicted probability for each class.

Value

When type = 'class', return a vector. When type = 'prob', return a matrix where each row and column represent an observation and a probability of that class, respectively. Default = 'class'.

References

Tian, Y., Rusinek, H., Masurkar, A. V., & Feng, Y. (2023). L1-penalized Multinomial Regression: Estimation, inference, and prediction, with an application to risk factor identification for different dementia subtypes. arXiv preprint arXiv:2302.02310.

See Also

cv.pemultinom, debiased_lasso.

Examples

# generate training data from Model 1 in Tian et al. (2023) with n = 50 and p = 50
set.seed(1, kind = "L'Ecuyer-CMRG")
n <- 50
p <- 50
K <- 3

Sigma <- outer(1:p, 1:p, function(x,y) {
  0.9^(abs(x-y))
})
R <- chol(Sigma)
s <- 3
beta_coef <- matrix(0, nrow = p+1, ncol = K-1)
beta_coef[1+1:s, 1] <- c(1.5, 1.5, 1.5)
beta_coef[1+1:s+s, 2] <- c(1.5, 1.5, 1.5)

x <- matrix(rnorm(n*p), ncol = p) %*% R
y <- sapply(1:n, function(j){
  prob_i <- c(sapply(1:(K-1), function(k){
    exp(sum(x[j, ]*beta_coef[-1, k]))
  }), 1)
  prob_i <- prob_i/sum(prob_i)
  sample(1:K, size = 1, replace = TRUE, prob = prob_i)
})

# fit the l1-penalized multinomial regression model
fit <- cv.pemultinom(x, y, ncores = 2)

# generate test data from the same model
x.test <- matrix(rnorm(n*p), ncol = p) %*% R
y.test <- sapply(1:n, function(j){
  prob_i <- c(sapply(1:(K-1), function(k){
    exp(sum(x.test[j, ]*beta_coef[-1, k]))
  }), 1)
  prob_i <- prob_i/sum(prob_i)
  sample(1:K, size = 1, replace = TRUE, prob = prob_i)
})

# predict labels of test data and calculate the misclassification error rate (using beta.min)
ypred.min <- predict_pemultinom(fit$beta.min, ref = 3, xnew = x.test, type = "class")
mean(ypred.min != y.test)

# predict labels of test data and calculate the misclassification error rate (using beta.1se)
ypred.1se <- predict_pemultinom(fit$beta.1se, ref = 3, xnew = x.test, type = "class")
mean(ypred.1se != y.test)

# predict posterior probabilities of test data
ypred.prob <- predict_pemultinom(fit$beta.min, ref = 3, xnew = x.test, type = "prob")