lwuf {peacesciencer}

Leader Willingness to Use Force

Description

These are the estimates of leader willingness to use force as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020).

Usage

lwuf

Format

A data frame with 3409 observations on the following 9 variables.

obsid

an observational ID from archigos

theta1_mean

the mean simulated M1 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

theta1_sd

the standard deviation of simulated M1 thetas

theta2_mean

the mean simulated M2 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

theta2_sd

the standard deviation of simulated M2 thetas

theta3_mean

the mean simulated M3 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

theta3_sd

the standard deviation of simulated M3 thetas

theta4_mean

the mean simulated M4 theta, as estimated by Carter and Smith (2020)

theta4_sd

the standard deviation of simulated M4 thetas

Details

The letter published by the authors contains more information as to what these thetas refer. The "M1" theta is a variation of the standard Rasch model from the boilerplate information in the LEAD data. The authors consider this to be "theoretically relevant" or "risk-related" as these all refer to conflict or risk-taking. The "M2" theta expands on "M1" by including political orientation and psychological characteristics. "M3" and "M4" expand on "M1" and "M2" by considering all 36 variables in the LEAD data.

The authors construct and include all these measures, though their analyses suggest "M2" is the best-performing measure.

References

Carter, Jeff and Charles E. Smith, Jr. 2020. "A Framework for Measuring Leaders' Willingness to Use Force." American Political Science Review 114(4): 1352–1358.