plot_mvgam_forecasts {mvgam}

Plot mvgam posterior predictions for a specified series

Description

Plot mvgam posterior predictions for a specified series

Usage

plot_mvgam_fc(
  object,
  series = 1,
  newdata,
  data_test,
  realisations = FALSE,
  n_realisations = 15,
  hide_xlabels = FALSE,
  xlab,
  ylab,
  ylim,
  n_cores = 1,
  return_forecasts = FALSE,
  return_score = FALSE,
  ...
)

## S3 method for class 'mvgam_forecast'
plot(
  x,
  series = 1,
  realisations = FALSE,
  n_realisations = 15,
  hide_xlabels = FALSE,
  xlab,
  ylab,
  ylim,
  return_score = FALSE,
  ...
)

Arguments

object

list object returned from mvgam. See mvgam()

series

integer specifying which series in the set is to be plotted

newdata

Optional dataframe or list of test data containing at least 'series' and 'time' in addition to any other variables included in the linear predictor of the original formula. If included, the covariate information in newdata will be used to generate forecasts from the fitted model equations. If this same newdata was originally included in the call to mvgam, then forecasts have already been produced by the generative model and these will simply be extracted and plotted. However if no newdata was supplied to the original model call, an assumption is made that the newdata supplied here comes sequentially after the data supplied as data in the original model (i.e. we assume there is no time gap between the last observation of series 1 in data and the first observation for series 1 in newdata). If newdata contains observations in column y, these observations will be used to compute a Discrete Rank Probability Score for the forecast distribution

data_test

Deprecated. Still works in place of newdata but users are recommended to use newdata instead for more seamless integration into R workflows

realisations

logical. If TRUE, forecast realisations are shown as a spaghetti plot, making it easier to visualise the diversity of possible forecasts. If FALSE, the default, empirical quantiles of the forecast distribution are shown

n_realisations

integer specifying the number of posterior realisations to plot, if realisations = TRUE. Ignored otherwise

hide_xlabels

logical. If TRUE, no xlabels are printed to allow the user to add custom labels using axis from base R

xlab

label for x axis.

ylab

label for y axis.

ylim

Optional vector of y-axis limits (min, max)

n_cores

integer specifying number of cores for generating forecasts in parallel

return_forecasts

logical. If TRUE, the function will plot the forecast as well as returning the forecast object (as a matrix of dimension n_samples x horizon)

return_score

logical. If TRUE and out of sample test data is provided as newdata, a probabilistic score will be calculated and returned. The score used will depend on the observation family from the fitted model. Discrete families (poisson, negative binomial, tweedie) use the Discrete Rank Probability Score. Other families use the Continuous Rank Probability Score. The value returned is the sum of all scores within the out of sample forecast horizon

...

further par graphical parameters.

x

Object of class mvgam_forecast

Details

plot_mvgam_fc draws posterior predictions from an object of class mvgam and calculates posterior empirical quantiles.

plot.mvgam_forecast takes an object of class mvgam_forecast, in which forecasts have already been computed, and plots the resulting forecast distribution.

If realisations = FALSE, these posterior quantiles are plotted along with the true observed data that was used to train the model. Otherwise, a spaghetti plot is returned to show possible forecast paths.

Value

A base R graphics plot and an optional list containing the forecast distribution and the out of sample probabilistic forecast score