NCAA_Basketball {metaggR}

Data: NCAA Basketball

Description

Palley and Soll (2019) recruited participants through ClearVoice Research and Amazon Mechanical Turk to estimate the probability that one team or the other would win various games in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournaments. The responses for the Round of 64 games and Round of 16 games are treated separately because the Round of 64 games happen at the start of the tournament and often involve heavily mismatched teams (e.g., a 1 seed versus a 16 seed) while Round of 16 games typically involve more evenly matched teams, with implied betting market probabilities closer to 50%.

Usage

E_NCAA_R64

E_NCAA_R16

P_NCAA_R64

P_NCAA_R16

THETA_NCAA_R64

THETA_NCAA_R16

ID_NCAA_R64

ID_NCAA_R16

Format

E_NCAA_R64

is a list of the judges' estimates of the probability that the given team wins in Round of 64. Specifically, the jth element is a vector of the judges' estimated probability in the jth game.

E_NCAA_R16

is a list of the judges' estimates of the probability that the given team wins in Round of 16. Specifically, the jth element is a vector of the judges' estimated probability in the jth game.

P_NCAA_R64

is a list of the judges' predictions of other judges' average probability that the given team wins in Round of 64. Specifically, the jth element is a vector of the judges' predictions of the other judges' average probabilities in the jth game.

P_NCAA_R16

is a list of the judges' predictions of other judges' average probability that the given team wins in Round of 16. Specifically, the jth element is a vector of the judges' predictions of the other judges' average probabilities in the jth game.

THETA_NCAA_R64

is a vector of the actual outcomes of the games in the Round of 64. Specifically, the jth element is the actual outcome of jth game in Round of 64.

THETA_NCAA_R16

is a vector of the actual outcomes of the games in the Round of 16. Specifically, the jth element is the actual outcome of jth game in Round of 16.

ID_NCAA_R64

is a list of the judges' identification numbers in the judgment tasks associated with the Round of 64 games. Specifically, the jth element is a vector of identification numbers of judges' who participated in estimating the probability of a given team winning the jth game of Round of 64. These values make it possible to track a judge across judgment tasks.

ID_NCAA_R16

is a list of the judges' identification numbers in the judgment tasks associated with the Round of 16 games. Specifically, the jth element is a vector of identification numbers of judges' who participated in estimating the probability of a given team winning the jth game of Round of 16. These values make it possible to track a judge across judgment tasks.

Remark.

The elements of each list correspond to the same game. Specifically, the jth elements of THETA_NCAA_R16, E_NCAA_R16, P_NCAA_R16, and ID_NCAA_R16 represent the true outcome, estimates, the predictions of others, and identification numbers associated with the jth game in the Round of 16.

Source

Asa Palley and Jack Soll. "Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared." doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3047