make_ar_extrap_samps {incidental}

Make AR samples for extrapolation past end point

Description

Make auto-regressive (AR) samples for extrapolation past end point to help with right-censoring problems.

Usage

make_ar_extrap_samps(
  reported,
  num_ar_steps = 10,
  num_ar_samps = 50,
  seed = 1,
  linear_tail = 14,
  extrapolation_prior_precision = 2
)

Arguments

reported

An integer vector of reported cases.

num_ar_steps

An integer number of AR steps after last observation.

num_ar_samps

An integer number of AR samples.

seed

Seed for RNG.

linear_tail

An integer number of days used to fit linear model on tail to be used as a mean for AR extrapolation.

extrapolation_prior_precision

A positive scalar for extrapolation slope shrinkage prior precision.

Value

A matrix of size (num_ar_samps x n + num_ar_steps)