predcor {factorstochvol}

Predicts correlation matrix

Description

predcor simulates from the posterior predictive distribution of the model-implied correlation matrix.

Usage

predcor(x, ahead = 1, each = 1)

Arguments

x

Object of class 'fsvdraws', usually resulting from a call to fsvsample.

ahead

Vector of timepoints, indicating how many steps to predict ahead.

each

Single integer (or coercible to such) indicating how often should be drawn from the posterior predictive distribution for each draw that has been stored during MCMC sampling.

Value

4-dimensional array containing draws from the predictive correlation distribution.

Note

Currently crudely implemented as a triple loop in pure R, may be slow.

See Also

Other predictors: predcond(), predcov(), predh(), predloglikWB(), predloglik(), predprecWB()

Examples

set.seed(1)
sim <- fsvsim(series = 3, factors = 1) # simulate
res <- fsvsample(sim$y, factors = 1) # estimate

# Predict 1, 10, and 100 days ahead:
predobj <- predcor(res, ahead = c(1, 10, 100))

# Trace plot of draws from posterior predictive distribution
# of the correlation of Sim1 and Sim2:
# (one, ten, and 100 days ahead):
plot.ts(predobj[1,2,,])

# Smoothed kernel density estimates of predicted covariance
# of Sim1 and Sim2:
plot(density(predobj[1,2,,"1"], adjust = 2))
lines(density(predobj[1,2,,"10"], adjust = 2), col = 2)
lines(density(predobj[1,2,,"100"], adjust = 2), col = 3)