soften_mean {aggutils}

Soften the mean.

Description

If the mean is > .5, trim the top trim%; if < .5, the bottom trim%. Return the new mean (i.e. soften the mean).

Usage

soften_mean(x, p = 0.1)

Arguments

x

Vector of forecasts in 0 to 100 range (%)

p

The proportion of forecasts to trim from each end (between 0 and 1)

Value

(numeric) The softened mean of the vector

Note

This goes against usual wisdom of extremizing the mean, but performs well when the crowd has some overconfident forecasters in it.