presidentialForecast {EBMAforecast}

Sample data Presidential Election

Description

This includes the data for the presidential election forecasting example in Montgomery, Hollenbach and Ward (2012). The data ranges from 1952 to 2008 and includes predictions for the six different component models included in the Ensemble model. Users may split the sample into calibration and test sample.

Usage

presidentialForecast

Format

An object of class data.frame with 15 rows and 7 columns.

Details

The variables included in the dataset are:

• Campbell Predictions of Campbell's “Trial-Heat and Economy Model” (Campbell 2008).

• Abramowitz Predictions of Abramowitz's “Time for Change Model” (Abramowitz 2008).

• Hibbs Predictions for the “Bread and Peace Model” created by Douglas Hibbs (2008).

• Fair Forecasts from Fair's presidential vote share model (2010).

• Lewis-Beck/Tien Predictions from the “Jobs Model Forecast” by Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien (2008).

• EWT2C2 Predictions from the model in Column 2 in Table 2 by Erickson and Wlezien (2008).

• Actual The true values of the dependent variable, i.e. the incumbent-party voteshare in each presidential election in the sample.

References

Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian M. Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward. (2012). Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging. Political Analysis. 20: 271-291.

Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian M. Hollenbach and Michael D. Ward. (2015). Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences. International Journal of Forecasting. 31:930–942.

Campbell, James E. 2008. The trial-heat forecast of the 2008 presidential vote: Performance and value considerations in an open-seat election. PS: Political Science & Politics 41:697-701.

Hibbs, Douglas A. 2000. Bread and peace voting in U.S presidential elections. Public Choice 104:149-180.

Fair, Ray C. 2010. Presidential and Congressional vote-share equations: November 2010 update. Working Paper. Yale University.

Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Charles Tien. 2008. The job of president and the jobs model forecast: Obama for '08? PS: Political Science & Politics 41:687-690.

Erikson, Robert S. and Christopher Wlezien. 2008. Leading economic indicators, the polls, and the presidential vote. PS: Political Science & Politics 41:703-707.