PredLGR {CompoundEvents}

Prediction of compound event occurrences

Description

Fit the logistic regression model (LGR) based on occurrences of compound events (Y) and climate index (CI).The output is the predicted probability of compound event occurrence for the given climate index value CI0

Usage

PredLGR(Y,CI,CI0)

Arguments

Y

Occurrences of compound dry-hot events (0-1 binary variable) (L lead time)

CI

Climate index (CI) as the driving factor of compound events (e.g., ENSO)

CI0

Specified CI value based on which the prediction is issued

Value

Probability of occurrences estimated at CI0

References

Hao, Z. et al. (2019). Statistical prediction of the severity of compound dry-hot events based on ENSO . J. Hydrol., 572: 243-250.

Examples

CI=c(-0.7,-1.2,1.3,0.7,-0.6,1.1,-0.5,0.8,0.5,-0.5,1.6,-1.8,-0.5,-1.4,-0.1,2.2,-0.7,-1.1, 0.6, -1.7)
Y=c(0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,0 )
PredLGR(Y,CI,2)