ternary_forecast_example {CalSim} | R Documentation |

## Ternary probability forecast and observations.

### Description

10,000 realizations of a ternary probability forecast, which exhibits different characteristics,
depending on the realizing outcome variable. Idealized forecast example, generated as described in Wilks (2013).

### Usage

data(ternary_forecast_example)

### Format

A data frame with 10,000 rows and 6 variables.

- p1
forecast probability for outcome 1

- p3
forecast probability for outcome 3

- obs0
outcomes, such that the forecast is well-calibrated

- obs1
outcomes, such that the forecast is overconfident

- obs2
outcomes, such that the forecast is underconfident

- obs3
outcomes, such that the forecast is unconditionally biased

### Source

Data generated by package author.

### References

Daniel S. Wilks, 2013, The Calibration Simplex: A Generalization of the Reliability Diagram for Three-Category Probability Forecasts, *Weather and Forecasting*, **28**, 1210-1218

[Package

*CalSim* version 0.5.2

Index]