ternary_forecast_example {CalSim}

Ternary probability forecast and observations.

Description

10,000 realizations of a ternary probability forecast, which exhibits different characteristics, depending on the realizing outcome variable. Idealized forecast example, generated as described in Wilks (2013).

Usage

data(ternary_forecast_example)

Format

A data frame with 10,000 rows and 6 variables.

p1

forecast probability for outcome 1

p3

forecast probability for outcome 3

obs0

outcomes, such that the forecast is well-calibrated

obs1

outcomes, such that the forecast is overconfident

obs2

outcomes, such that the forecast is underconfident

obs3

outcomes, such that the forecast is unconditionally biased

Source

Data generated by package author.

References

Daniel S. Wilks, 2013, The Calibration Simplex: A Generalization of the Reliability Diagram for Three-Category Probability Forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 28, 1210-1218