pof_future_submarine_cables {CNAIM}

Future Probability of Failure for Submarine Cables

Description

This function calculates the Future annual probability of failure per kilometer for submarine cables. The function is a cubic curve that is based on the first three terms of the Taylor series for an exponential function. For more information about the probability of failure function see section 6 on page 34 in CNAIM (2021).

Usage

pof_future_submarine_cables(
  sub_cable_type = "EHV Sub Cable",
  utilisation_pct = "Default",
  operating_voltage_pct = "Default",
  topography = "Default",
  situation = "Default",
  wind_wave = "Default",
  intensity = "Default",
  landlocked = "no",
  sheath_test = "Default",
  partial_discharge = "Default",
  fault_hist = "Default",
  condition_armour = "Default",
  age,
  reliability_factor = "Default",
  simulation_end_year = 100
)

Arguments

sub_cable_type

String. A sting that refers to the specific asset category. See See page 17, table 1 in CNAIM (2021). Options: sub_cable_type = c("HV Sub Cable", "EHV Sub Cable", "132kV Sub Cable"). The deafult setting is sub_cable_type = "EHV Sub Cable".

utilisation_pct

Numeric. The max percentage of utilisation under normal operating conditions.

operating_voltage_pct

Numeric. The ratio in percent of operating/design voltage.

topography

String. Describe the topography around the submarine cable. Options: typography = c("Low Detrimental Topography", "Medium Detrimental Topography", "High Detrimental Topography", "Very High Detrimental Topography","Default" )

situation

Situation of the cable

wind_wave

Numeric. Options: wind_wave=c(1, 2, 3, "Default"). Settings:

• wind_wave = 1: Sheltered sea loch, Wind <200 W/m2

• wind_wave = 2: Wave <15kW/m, Wind 200-800 W/m2

• wind_wave = 3: Wave <15kW/m, Wind 200-800 W/m2

• wind_wave = "Default": No data available

intensity

String. Combined wave and current energy factor. Options: intensity=c("Low", "Moderate", "High", "Default").

landlocked

String. Options: landlocked = c("yes","no"). Default setting for landlocked = "no".

sheath_test

String. Indicating the state of the sheath. Options: sheath_test = c("Pass", "Failed Minor", "Failed Major", "Default"). See page 158, table 189 in CNAIM (2021).

partial_discharge

String. Indicating the level of partial discharge. Options: partial_discharge = c("Low", "Medium", "High", "Default"). See page 158, table 190 in CNAIM (2021).

fault_hist

Numeric. The calculated fault rate for the cable per annum per kilometer. A setting of "No historic faults recorded" indicates no fault. See page 158, table 191 in CNAIM (2021).

condition_armour

String. Indicating the external condition of the submarine cables armour. Options: condition_armour = c("Good","Poor","Critical","Default")

age

Numeric. The current age in years of the cable.

reliability_factor

Numeric. reliability_factor shall have a value between 0.6 and 1.5. A setting of "Default" sets the reliability_factor to 1. See section 6.14 on page 73 in CNAIM (2021).

simulation_end_year

Numeric. The last year of simulating probability of failure. Default is 100.

Value

DataFrame. Future probability of failure along with future health score

Source

DNO Common Network Asset Indices Methodology (CNAIM), Health & Criticality - Version 2.1, 2021: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2021/04/dno_common_network_asset_indices_methodology_v2.1_final_01-04-2021.pdf

Examples

# Current annual probability of failure for 1 km EHV Sub Cable
pof_future_submarine_cables(
 sub_cable_type = "EHV Sub Cable",
 utilisation_pct = "Default",
 operating_voltage_pct = "Default",
 topography = "Default",
 situation = "Default",
 wind_wave = "Default",
 intensity = "Default",
 landlocked = "no",
 sheath_test = "Default",
 partial_discharge = "Default",
 fault_hist = "Default",
 condition_armour = "Default",
 age = 10,
 reliability_factor = "Default",
 simulation_end_year = 100)